CLEWS Model: How University of Guyana's Climate-Water-Energy Model Prevents Future Disasters
Reporting for this article and quotes were provided by University of Guyana, Simon Fraser University, and Catalyste+ teams.
Key Points
- ✓ Your water, food, and energy security are interconnected - when one fails, others collapse in a domino effect that can devastate entire economies
- ✓ Guyana's 2005 floods cost $465 million and affected 290,000 people, demonstrating the catastrophic cost of failing to understand resource interconnections
- ✓ The University of Guyana's CLEWS model provides the first comprehensive tool for analyzing how climate, land, energy, and water systems interact to prevent future disasters
- ✓ Canadian organization Catalyste+ funds initiative to train policymakers in evidence-based decisions that could save billions in disaster response while protecting vulnerable populations
- ✓ Agriculture, housing, and energy sectors can now plan together using data-driven scenarios that account for climate change impacts over the next 25 years
- ✓ Partnership opportunities exist for governments and organizations seeking to implement integrated resource planning in climate-vulnerable regions
In January 2005, devastating floods swept across Guyana's coastline, affecting 290,000 people—more than a third of the country's population. The disaster caused $465 million in damage, equivalent to 60% of Guyana's entire GDP at the time. Families lost their homes, crops were destroyed, and the nation's economy was crippled for years.
What made this disaster particularly devastating wasn't just the rainfall—it was how interconnected failures cascaded through Guyana's resource systems. When flood defenses failed, agricultural land was destroyed, affecting food security. Energy infrastructure was damaged, disrupting water treatment facilities. The interconnected nature of these systems meant that a climate event became a national catastrophe.
Dr. Garvin Cummings, Chief Hydromet Officer in the Ministry of Agriculture, explains the challenge: "There's a nexus between climate, land, energy, water resources; they're inseparable. Should you impact one of those, it will affect everything else, having a domino effect."
Twenty years later, Guyana faces even greater challenges. Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events, while the country's oil boom is transforming its development trajectory. Traditional planning approaches that treat water, energy, land, and climate as separate issues are no longer adequate for this complex reality.
The Climate, Land, Energy, and Water Systems (CLEWS) model launched at the University of Guyana represents a breakthrough in how countries can understand and manage their interconnected resources. Developed through a partnership between the University of Guyana, Simon Fraser University in Canada, and Canadian organization Catalyste+, this modeling framework provides policymakers with unprecedented insight into how their decisions ripple through interconnected systems.
How CLEWS Integrated Modeling Works
- • Integrated Data Analysis: CLEWS combines climate projections, land use patterns, energy demand, and water resources into a single model that shows how changes in one area affect all others
- • Scenario Testing: Policymakers can test different development scenarios—such as new housing projects or energy infrastructure—to see their full impact across all resource systems before making investments
- • Trade-off Identification: The model reveals where resource competition exists (such as water needed for both agriculture and energy) and helps identify optimal allocation strategies
- • Climate Impact Assessment: CLEWS analyzes how climate change affects resource availability and helps design resilient systems that can withstand future shocks
- • Cost-Benefit Analysis: The model calculates the economic implications of different resource allocation strategies, helping governments achieve their climate and development goals at the lowest cost
The launch of the CLEWS model at University of Guyana
Dr. Taco Niet, Assistant Professor at Simon Fraser University's School of Sustainable Energy Engineering, who led the technical training, emphasizes the model's practical applications: "The framework is applicable to different geographical scales, from global, to regional, national and urban levels."
Real-World Applications: From Housing to Hurricane Preparedness
The CLEWS model's power lies in its ability to transform abstract policy decisions into concrete, data-driven strategies. For Guyana, this means the difference between development that creates vulnerabilities and development that builds resilience.
Housing Development: The model can identify optimal locations for new housing schemes that balance land suitability, water availability, and energy access. Rather than building homes that become uninhabitable during floods or lack reliable utilities, planners can design communities that remain functional under climate stress.
Agricultural Planning: With agriculture forming a crucial part of Guyana's non-oil economy, the model helps optimize land use and water conservation strategies. Farmers and policymakers can understand how changing rainfall patterns will affect crop yields and adjust irrigation and land management accordingly.
Energy Infrastructure: As Guyana develops its energy sector, CLEWS ensures that new projects don't compete with water resources needed for agriculture or urban consumption. The model identifies energy solutions that complement rather than conflict with other resource needs.
Canadian High Commissioner to Guyana Sébastien Sigouin highlights the broader implications: "Through this initiative, this type of model, we can develop different scenarios to support better decision-making that ensures sustainable development and that we address challenges like climate change, food security and energy needs."
A Future Beyond Reactive Disaster Response
The launch of CLEWS at the University of Guyana marks a fundamental shift from reactive disaster response to proactive resilience building. The initiative, funded by Global Affairs Canada under the Canada-CARICOM Expert Deployment Mechanism through Canadian organization Catalyste+, represents more than just a technical tool—it's a new approach to sustainable development that other climate-vulnerable nations are watching closely.
Professor Paloma Mohamed Martin, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Guyana, emphasizes the long-term vision: "The initiative will serve as a massive boost to the efforts being made by the University and the country as a whole to understand and efficiently manage Guyana's land and marine resources."
The model's 25-year projection capabilities mean that infrastructure built today can be designed to withstand the climate conditions of 2050, not just current conditions. For a country like Guyana, where sea-level rise and changing precipitation patterns pose existential threats, this long-term planning capability could mean the difference between thriving and merely surviving.
Building Climate-Smart Partnerships
The success of the University of Guyana's CLEWS initiative demonstrates the power of international collaboration in addressing climate challenges. The partnership between Canada, through organizations like Catalyste+ and MITACS, and the University of Guyana creates a model for how developed and developing nations can work together on climate adaptation.
Dr. Dawn Fox, Head of UG's Department of Chemistry and local coordinator for the CLEWS training, notes the immediate benefits: "The training has yielded immediate benefits in the formation of a UG modelling group and their ability to share their newly acquired skills with our students."
This knowledge transfer approach ensures that CLEWS modeling capabilities will continue to grow within Guyana's academic and policy communities. The formation of a dedicated modeling group at the University of Guyana creates a sustainable foundation for ongoing research and policy support.
Looking ahead, the model's success in Guyana positions it as a template for other Small Island Developing States and climate-vulnerable regions worldwide. As highlighted by Adam Loyer, Head of Cooperation at the Canadian High Commission: "The importance of comprehensive, climate smart policies and integrated planning have become a global focus as the economic, human, and ecological costs to respond to and recover from climate-related disasters increase in frequency and severity."
Dr. Garvin Cummings, Chief Hydromet Officer in the Ministry of Agriculture, offers a powerful vision for the future: "This is perhaps a development pathway that we didn't imagine 20 years ago. We now have a tool that can equip us to plan well into the future."
The University of Guyana's success with CLEWS builds on the institution's growing reputation for climate innovation. Earlier this year, the university's Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences launched G-CAS (Guyana Coastal Analysis System), an AI-powered satellite platform that provides real-time coastal monitoring and flood prediction. Together, these platforms position the University of Guyana as a regional leader in climate-smart technology development.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the CLEWS model and how does it work?
CLEWS (Climate, Land, Energy, and Water Systems) is an integrated modeling framework that analyzes how climate, land use, energy, and water systems interact. It helps policymakers understand how decisions in one area affect all others, enabling more effective resource planning and climate adaptation.
How can CLEWS prevent disasters like Guyana's 2005 floods?
CLEWS identifies vulnerabilities in interconnected systems before disasters strike. By modeling how climate events affect multiple resource systems simultaneously, it helps policymakers build resilience into infrastructure and resource management strategies.
Who can benefit from CLEWS modeling?
Government agencies, urban planners, agricultural departments, energy companies, and international development organizations can all use CLEWS to make more informed decisions about resource allocation and climate adaptation.
How accurate are CLEWS projections?
CLEWS models use established climate science and verified data sources to project scenarios up to 25 years into the future. While no model can predict exact outcomes, CLEWS provides reliable probability assessments that help policymakers prepare for likely scenarios.
Can other countries implement similar programs?
Yes, the CLEWS framework is designed to be adaptable to different geographical scales and contexts. The open-source OSeMOSYS platform used for CLEWS modeling is freely available for implementation worldwide.
What makes this different from traditional planning approaches?
Traditional planning often treats water, energy, land, and climate as separate issues. CLEWS recognizes that these systems are interconnected and provides a framework for understanding their relationships, leading to more effective and resilient development strategies.
Note to Media
Under our Creative Commons licence, editors and journalists are welcome to republish and reuse this article. Scientific angles that could be expanded for further reporting include:
- Economic modeling of resource trade-offs in climate adaptation
- Technical applications of OSeMOSYS modeling in small island developing states
- International collaboration frameworks for climate resilience technology transfer
- Comparative analysis of integrated versus siloed resource planning approaches
For further information from the academics featured in this article, reach out to Innovation Report to coordinate by email or contact the media office directly at the University of Guyana.
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